Are NIB Sterns worth it anymore?

[number six]

Of course I'm talking about the full-priced $4000+ NIB Sterns, is it really worth it?

Recently we've seen all these close-outs for just over $3k on pretty much all the titles from the last year. I've seen this sort of pricing before, especially on the clunkers (weren't they blowing out Ripleys for sub-$3k nib?). Even if you don't get a deal on a NIB, the HUO units aren't increasing in price (not yet anyway). I think i've seen just about every stern out there HUO for pretty cheap, even LOTRs are poping up at very reasonable prices.

Then there's the mega-deprecation even on what would seemingly be a popular title like IJ4. That thing seems to have lost $1,000 in value in just a month or two which is pretty heavy even by pin standards.

So is it worth pre-ordering a Stern at full price anymore? Not that it really applies to me, I'm far too cheap and would rather have 2 old Bally/Williams games instead anyday. However, if i had an extra $3k i probably would have got one of those Spidermans they had recently, that game was pretty cool.

[tktlwyr]

The little picture:  Stern's shooting themselves in the foot with this software thing and the collector's are less willing to pull the trigger.  They did decent with BDK with fast updates (beautiful game, but if the gameplay is not there...).  I just picked up an HUO Spider-Man with 300 plays for $2,850.  Greg (drexel) nabbed a POTC for $400 less.  The close-out deals are to move the stale inventory.

The big picture:  The whole pinball market is down, except for the more desirable 'A' title games.  It's adjusting with the economy and the usual summer slump.  I'm wondering what the X-Mas rush will show us.

BTW, Macs rule! 

[drexel]

I doubt I would have ever bought an NIB until I saw that deal posted by JohnnyMac.  A good newer title can still fetch $3500 HUO.  Jack at pinballsales seems to have a higher price but can still deliver about any game to your door for 4k.  Didn't Herman's IJ4 sell for $3600?  So a $4-500 hit for a 6 month old game may be considered good or bad?  Basically I look at it as renting the game for X dollars/week/month.  You can get the newest game for $100 a month if you keep it say 6 months and it's a decent game.  I typically am on the cheaper side and prefer HUO quality for a cheaper price, thus the POTC.  There are so many out there that I'd like to "rent" for a while it doesn't really make sense for me to buy new and take the big depreciation up front ($3300 NIB excluded).
I've seen other POTC's sell for 3k plus and SM's for 3k-3200 in the last few months, so I think it's still a timing/buyer/seller confidence thing.  If the Ebay seller would have sent Jeff some good pix and been easier to reach on the SM, it may have sold higher. 
All in all, I'll probably get the majority of my games used but in great condition.  I sold my LOTR even though I really like it to get "out from under" it.  I can see buying a lightly routed or HUO example for cheap in the future.  Depends on what kind of player/collector you are and how you like your stuff.  I like most of my games to be minty, but the BSD I have I love and it's not in the best shape!  What's your preference and what's your wallet let you do?
The Pre-order part you mention?  Nope, I wouldn't do that, especially with the slow to release software, not knowing general consensus on the game, etc.  I still would like to play some IJ4 though and see for myself how that is, but $4k NIB is not worth it.  I probably would only want to pick one up in the $3250 range?

[Mr. Fuzzy]

Yeah, well I've said this before, and been sufficiently flamed for it...but I have taken Dozens of Sterns out of the Box, and they are just cheaper units than the Williams/Bally Machines...And they still demand the same (if not a little more) price for what to me is just a cheaper manufacturing process...

I will admit, they have at least improved on their playfields over earlier stern designs...but have you seen the amount of ball warpage going on on even some of the newer machines? We had a Nascar in the shop yesterday that I was cleaning, getting ready to go out again...It had been in a fairly good bar, out of the sun, out of the heat...even the windows were blacked out in this place...and at a little over 7200 plays, and there was significant ripple in the playfield, due to ball impacts. Now will these home use pins ever see that kind of mileage? probably not...and by the time they do, they will be 10 years old or so...but still, that's pretty crappy workmanship, when the game is showing that kind of wear, and at 50c a game, it hasnt even paid for itself then.

Reason I like Williams and Bally...they were designed with the operator/location in mind, and stand up quite well over time. Stern has made cookie cutter versions, and they just arent as durable...Kinda like the Military Hummer, Vs the ones you can buy for home use... The home use ones wouldn't even make it over the 1st sand dune. 

-Dan

[TheBatman]

"if the Ebay seller would have sent Jeff some good pix and been easier to reach on the SM, it may have sold higher. "

If it makes anyone feel any better my high snipe bid was only around $2,750...I was factoring in at least a 7 hour round trip + gas money.  That is actually WAY more than I even told myself I'd want to spend on SM, which my goal is wait until it hits around $2,250.  The reason MAINLY is...well, 1) it's not completely finished and 2) I can still play it at various locations, so not a big urgency to have it in my home yet if I can still find it out there, and 3) well, it's a nice game, but not $3K worth of nice to me...willing to wait for a cheaper one.  Had that one been in Orlando and an easier transaction to deal with AND the seller not completely blow me off, it might have been a different story for what looks to be a very nice HUO game.  But fact is, if the guy wouldn't even respond to my basic questions of "Does it have ANY wear anywhere? Is it working 100% Can you send me some better/ close up pics?"  and I get NO RESPONSE at all, then I have to assume there ARE some issues he's not making readily available, that or he just doesn't care enough to deal with me.  Either way I get sick of dealing with people who don't care enough to go the extra distance to get around 3 THOUSAND F' in dollars from someone...if they're that lazy they don't deserve my business, and even though from reports from a few people around here who may know this guy and the games probably ARE issue free...I didn't want to take the chance or deal with all the BS if I can't even get a reply from multiple emails.  I AM glad others got the pins and are happy, it just wasn't right for me.

Anyway,  I WAS fairly anxious for BDK pin as well...but as soon as all the typical software crap showed up...well, that's a big turn off and I'm willing to wait as long as it takes until they get it right and get the game COMPLETED.  I'll wait for it to be out for a while, Rocky's should have one soon...and then test drive it and figure out how long I'm willing to wait and price I want to pay vs. entertainment value.  It might ALSO be a long wait for this one if I can still play it on site.  Believe it or not, the pins I've bought like Middle Earth, Black Hole, Travel Time...pretty much everything I have... I'd never plan on seeing any of those anywhere on location ANYWHERE again, so those were more important to me to have than the newer stuff, which will be plenty out there.  Plus, you know...Middle Earth is completed.

[tktlwyr]

I was really interested in Curly's S-M.  When this posted, I knew it was my opportunity to jump on one since it was a local game.  My bid reflected Curly's price plus the travel issuse you expressed, i.e. time, gas, tolls, etc.  I was pretty confident my bid was going to get it and, having dealt with the seller before, I knew he was very anal about the condition of his games.  I also knew that he is friends with Jack at PinballSales and probably bought the game NIB from him.  I'm sorry I knocked a fellow Florida collector out.

If it makes you feel better, Jeff...the game is absolutely FLAWLESS! 

The LED mods and shaker go in tonight!

[number six]

BTW, Macs rule! 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

[TheBatman]

Hi David,

I'm not sure that DOES make me feel any better!   I do like Spiderman as one of my favorite of the newer Sterns, actually T3 and Spiderman are my favorites of ALL the Sterns.  Curly's is still a good price, so you got a GREAT price on your SM, and it's nice you already knew a bit about the guy and had that comfort level, and were closer.  I didn't have that comfort level with him, and didn't absolutely HAVE to have one at this point in time, but I'm sure when the time is right I'll eventually get one.  I was watching 4 pins last week, so had plenty I was interested in.... you get the ones you're meant to get.  That SM was meant for you!  I'm glad someone here got it, it's nice to see people in the "family" get good deals.

[tktlwyr]

Thanks, Jeff!